New polling data from the STEM agency has shed light on regional variations in support for Czech political parties ahead of the autumn general election. It reveals that ANO is leading in all regions except Prague, though significant differences exist between regions.
In the South Moravian Region, ANO has a lead of only five percentage points (pp) over the governing Spolu coalition, consisting of ODS, TOP 09 and Christian Democrats, while in the Central Bohemia Region it is 6 pp. In the Moravia-Silesia Region, on the other hand, ANO leads by more than 22 pp over Spolu, with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) joint candidate list with three smaller parties a close third. The STEM agency’s combined electoral model for individual regions for March through June were published earlier this week by CNN Prima News.
The station showed models for four regions which account for about half of the seats. In Prague, the Spolu coalition would get 29.2%, followed by ANO (21.4%), and the Mayors and Independents (STAN) on 15.5%. The Pirates (13.6%) and the SPD list (6.5%) would also win seats in Prague, according to the model.
In the Moravia-Silesia Region, ANO leads clearly with 38.3%; Spolu would take 15.9% and SPD 14.8%. The fourth-place Pirates would have 6.9% and the fifth-place Mayors 6.4%. The Stacilo! (‘Enough!’) alliance, which includes the Communists, would also exceed the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament, with 5.7%.
There is less of a difference from the national models in South Moravia and Central Bohemia. In South Moravia, 28.4% of voters would vote for ANO and 23.3% for Spolu. STAN would have 10.6% support, SPD 9.9%, Pirates 7.2%, Stacilo! 6.9%, and the Motorists Party 5.1%.
In the Central Bohemia Region, ANO leads with 28.4%, while Spolu is second with 22.2%. They are followed by STAN with 15%, SPD with 11.1% and the Pirates with 5.6%. Stacilo! would get 5.3% in Central Bohemia.
CNN’s Prima News noted that STAN’s highest support would come in the Liberec Region (19%). ANO would be even more likely to win in the Usti nad Labem Region, with 40%, also polling at 37% in the Karlovy Vary Region. SPD would take second place ahead of Spolu in the Karlovy Vary and Usti nad Labem regions.
Stacilo! would miss out on the required 5% in Prague and the Liberec region, while the model assigns it 8% in the South Bohemia Region and 7% in four other regions. Apart from South Moravia, the Motorists only exceeded the 5% threshold in the Usti nad Labem Region.
The quarterly pooled model consists of 12 individual weekly data collections. In total, more than 7,300 people participated in the online survey.
