The opposition ANO would currently win a Czech parliamentary election, with 31.1% of the vote, but its support has dropped in recent weeks, according to the results of the STEM’s electoral model for CNN Prima News published yesterday.
The governing Spolu coalition of the Civic Democrats (ODS), Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and TOP 09 would finish second, strengthening its position slightly to 20%, followed by the junior government Mayors and Independents (STAN) with 11.8% and the far-right SPD with 8.9%.
The extra-parliamentary Motorist Party and the Stacilo! alliance, as well as the opposition Pirate Party, would also exceed the 5% parliamentary threshold and enter the Chamber of Deputies, according to the poll, conducted on a sample of 1,550 respondents from 7-25 March.
Although former Prime Minister Andrej Babis’s ANO has been leading in opinion polls by a wide margin for a long time, it has been dropping in support recently.
“Since the beginning of the year, ANO has hovered between 33 and 36%, whereas now it would get ‘only’ 31%, its worst result this year,” the pollsters said. ANO has significant support among citizens without secondary-school leaving exams and people over 60, but it polls well across all social-demographic groups.
Spolu strengthened in March; according to STEM, the grouping of the three government parties has a relatively balanced popularity across age and gender groups.
Support for STAN has also risen, and is now again close to its record support, with STAN’s main voter base among the youngest voters.
Support for SPD has also increased; this movement is traditionally strong among people without secondary school education. “It is not yet possible to fully estimate what effect the newly announced cooperation between SPD and smaller parties will have. We will take full account of the merger of the four political parties on the SPD’s ticket next week, once we have the responses from respondents who have had the opportunity to note this change,” STEM said.
SPD will cooperate with Svobodni, Tricolour and PRO in the parliamentary elections.
The Motorists would win 6.7% of the vote, according to the poll, and the party is gradually becoming more visible and slowly building a more stable voter base. The Motorists continue to see the highest support among men and younger age groups.
Stacilo! (6.3%) and the Pirates (5.8%) would still make it into the lower house.
For the Pirates, STEM points to divergent results in the electoral models. “The Pirates’ position remains very uncertain. In particular, the fact that they have a significantly smaller core of voters is a warning,” STEM said.
In terms of seats in the 200-seat lower house, ANO would win 75 and Spolu would have 46, followed by STAN (25), SPD (19), Motorists (13), Stacilo! (12) and Pirates (10).
Results of STEM election models (in %):
| March 30, 2025 | March 23, 2025 | March 16, 2025 | March 9, 2025 | March 2, 2025 | Feb 23, 2025 | Feb 16, 2025 | |
| ANO | 31.1 | 32.7 | 33.7 | 35.6 | 33.6 | 34.7 | 34.1 |
| Spolu | 20.0 | 18.7 | 17.3 | 17.1 | 16.2 | 18.5 | 19.0 |
| STAN | 11.8 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| SPD | 8.9 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.2 |
| Motorists | 6.7 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Stacilo! | 6.3 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.9 |
| Pirates | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| SOCDEM | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
Source: CNN Prima News
