The opposition ANO leads in opinion polling ahead of the Czech elections this autumn with 35.6% of the vote, and would occupy 93 seats in the 200-member Chamber of Deputies if the election were held now, according to the STEM agency’s electoral model for CNN Prima News published today, based on research from late February and early March.
This is the highest vote share for ANO since the beginning of 2025. The three-party governing coalition Spolu (‘Together’) would take 17.1% of the vote, according to the model.
The junior government Mayors and Independents (STAN), the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), the Pirate Party, and the Stacilo! (‘Enough!’) coalition would also cross the 5% threshold and enter the lower house, while the Motorists movement would narrowly miss out.
ANO’s voter preferences have risen by 2 percentage points compared to the previous poll at the beginning of March. Spolu, composed of the Civic Democrats (ODS), the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and TOP 09, has also grown, though by less than 1 percentage point.
ANO has significant support among citizens without university education and people over 60, but does not outright lose ground among any socio-demographic group, the poll found. Moreover, ANO enjoys a broadly spread voter base across all regions.
STAN would finish third in the election, with 10.9%. SPD would receive 7.5%, the party’s weakest result since the beginning of this year. The Pirates would receive 7.3% and the Communist-led Stacilo! would receive 5.4%.
“The stability of Stacilo!’s result above 5% is probably due to the solid and established core of the Communist electorate, but entry into the lower house is still not certain,” wrote STEM. “The supporters of Stacilo! are mainly older people and those without university education.”
The STEM model suggests that Motorists would end up with 4.5%, while all other parties, including the Social Democrats (SOCDEM) would receive under 3%.
In terms of seats, ANO would have 93 seats in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies, Spolu 41 and STAN 24. In total, the parties of the current governing coalition, along with the Pirates, would have 81 MPs in the lower house.
The research for the electoral model took place from 14 February to 4 March, involving 1,579 respondents. The expected turnout is 58%, according to the poll.
Results of the STEM election models (in percentage of votes):
| March 9, 2025 | March 2, 2025 | February 23, 2025 | February 16, 2025 | February 9, 2025 | |
| ANO | 35.6 | 33.6 | 34.7 | 34.1 | 35.3 |
| Spolu | 17.1 | 16.2 | 18.5 | 19.0 | 19.8 |
| STAN | 10.9 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 10.3 |
| SPD | 7.5 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.1 |
| Pirates | 7.3 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Stacilo! | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| Motorists | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Free Party | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Prisaha | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| SOCDEM | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Greens | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | – |
Source: CNN Prima News
