The opposition ANO would clearly win a Czech general election held now, with 33.9% of the vote, while the Stacilo! grouping, led by the Communist Party (KSCM), is polling above the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament, shows a STEM poll for CNN Prima News released yesterday.
The governing Spolu coalition of the Civic Democrats (ODS), Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and TOP 09 would finish second with 18.4% of the vote, followed by their junior government coalition partner Mayors and Independents (STAN), the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), and the Pirate Party, which left the government last autumn. The Motorists are on the verge of the threshold for entering the lower house, polling exactly 5% of the vote.
ANO, led by former PM Andrej Babis, has been polling over 30% for a long time.
“The ANO movement remains unchallenged as the leader of the opposition votes with a broad-based electoral base,” said the pollsters. “ANO finds significant support among citizens without a secondary school education and among people over 60, and is slightly more likely to be supported by women than by men. However, it does not fail completely in any social or demographic group.”
Spolu saw a 2.7 percentage point decline from last November, while STAN improved by 1 percentage point to 9.4% of the vote, SPD weakened slightly to 8.1% and the Pirates are at 6.8%.
Stacilo! is building on its good results from last year’s elections and would enter the lower house with 5.3% of the vote. The coalition’s supporters are found mainly in older age groups and among people with no higher education, STEM said.
In December, the Communists and other parties that went to the European elections last June on the “Stacilo!” list announced that they would sign a memorandum on cooperation in the parliamentary elections in mid-January. The Communists will try to return to the lower house after five years, cooperating with the Czech National Social Party (CSNS) and the United Democrats – Association of Independents (SD-SN). The coalition has also declared their readiness to cooperate with other left-wing nationalist parties and figures, they said in their December statement.
According to the pollsters, the results of last year’s European elections benefited the Motorists, who would now receive 5%. The Motorists are seeing higher support among the youngest age group, secondary-school graduates, and also among men, STEM noted.
In terms of seats, ANO would win 85 seats in the 200-seat Czech parliament. Spolu would have 44 MPs and STAN 22. SPD would have 18 legislators, the Pirates 13, and nine each for Stacilo! and the Motorists.
“From the point of view of the post-election arrangement, it is very likely that a representative of the ANO movement will be prime minister, given the expected gain in seats,” concluded STEM. “However, it will need one, maybe even two junior partners. Leaving aside the various media declarations, in such a situation ANO should have a very wide range of possibilities to gain confidence for its government. With regard to political declarations, options involving some form of support from SPD, Stacilo! or the Motorists seem to be more probable.”
The poll was conducted on a sample of 1,533 respondents from 3-7 January.
STEM election model (results in percent):
| Party | Jan 25 | Nov 24 | Oct 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Jan 24 |
| ANO | 33.9 | 33.7 | 32.1 | 33.4 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 33.4 |
| Spolu | 18.4 | 21.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| ODS | – | – | 14.2 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 14.5 | 13.2 |
| STAN | 9.4 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| SPD | 8.1 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| Pirates | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 11.3 |
| Stacilo! | 5.3 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KSCM | – | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Motorists | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | – | – |
| Prisaha | 3.0 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
