According to a new opinion poll by STEM, published yesterday by CNN Prima News TV, the opposition ANO would win a general election in the Czech Republic with 32.9%, and the Communist Party would re-enter the lower house of parliament, exceeding the 5% threshold.
The ruling Civic Democrats (ODS) would come second with 14.8%, followed by another of the five government coalition parties, the Pirates, with 8.7%.
The far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), another coalition party, Mayors and Independents (STAN), and the currently extra-parliamentary Communists would also exceed the 5% threshold needed to enter the lower house. On the contrary, the coalition party TOP 09 would fall to 4.5% and fail to enter the Chamber of Deputies.
The Pirates, SPD and TOP 09 party have all suffered significant decline in support since March. The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) also fell further, finishing behind both Prisaha and the Motorists, whose joint list was successful in the recent European Parliament (EP) elections.
According to the pollsters, SPD is now experiencing new competition for protest voters, in the wake of the EP elections. The Communist Party, which performed well as part of the Stacilo! coalition in the European elections, is gaining strength, while the extra-parliamentary PRO party is also polling around 2%.
“The strongest manifestation of the EP elections is the growth in relevance of the Motorists party and the strengthening of the potential gains of Prisaha, which together were significantly successful in the European elections,” STEM said.
Compared to March, ANO remained at 32.9%, and ODS rose by 0.3 percentage points, while the Pirates and SPD fell significantly, dropping by 1.8 and 2 percentage points respectively.
“In both cases, it can be said that the significant decline reflects the results of the European elections, in which both the Pirates and the SPD lost seats,” said the authors of the poll.
STAN improved its position slightly to 6.8%. The Communists, led by re-elected MEP Katerina Konecna, are polling at 5.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from March. In the 2021 parliamentary elections, the party won 3.6% of the vote, failing to achieve representation in the Chamber of Deputies for the first time since the return to democracy.
By contrast, TOP 09, if it ran alone and not in the Spolu coalition with ODS and KDU-CSL, would not currently win any seats, with 4.5%. The same applies for KDU-CSL at 2.5%. The three parties combined would take 21.8% of the vote, trailing over 10 points behind ANO.
The poll was conducted on a sample of 1,600 respondents from June 10 to 17.
STEM election models for CNN Prima News:
| Party | June 2024 | March 2024 | January 2024 | November 2023 | September 2023 |
| ANO | 32.9 | 32.9 | 33.4 | 33.2 | 30.8 |
| ODS | 14.8 | 14.5 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 13.1 |
| Pirates | 8.7 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 9.6 |
| SPD | 7.3 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 10.9 |
| STAN | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 5.3 |
| KSCM | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 4.3 |
| TOP 09 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 |
| Prisaha | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| Motorists | 2.7 | – | – | – | – |
| SOCDEM | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| KDU-CSL | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 5.0 |
