Credit: Freepik

ANO Maintains Significant Polling Lead Over Spolu Coalition

The opposition ANO would clearly win the general election if it were held now, winning 32% of the vote, more than twice more than the second-placed Civic Democratic Party (ODS) on 15.5%, according to the latest Kantar agency poll released yesterday.

If the governing ODS, Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and TOP 09 ran as the Spolu coalition, as in the last elections, they would win 22.5% of the vote, according to the poll results broadcast by Czech Television.

If the two smaller parties ran separately, KDU-CSL would fail to enter the lower house of parliament and TOP 09 would narrowly reach the 5% threshold to win lower house seats.

In the Kantar election model, the junior ruling Pirate Party would win 11%, Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) 9%, and the Mayors and Independents (STAN) 7.5%.

The extra-parliamentary Prisaha, Social Democrats (SOCDEM), Communists (KSCM) and Greens would fail to enter parliament.

Compared with the previous Kantar poll, ANO lost 2.5 percentage points, while the other parties had the same or very similar results as before.

In the general election in 2021, the Spolu coalition narrowly won ahead of ANO, with 27.79 and 27.12% of the vote. The election alliance of the Pirates and STAN, which is unlikely to persist into the next elections, received 15.62%, and the SPD 9.56%. No other parties would win MPs.

According to the latest Kantar model, ANO would win 96 seats in the 200-member Chamber of Deputies, ODS 41 seats, the Pirates 26, SPD 22 and STAN 15. If ODS, KDU-CSL and TOP 09 ran jointly as Spolu, they would win 53 MPs. In this case, ANO would have 90 MPs, the Pirates 23, SPD 21 and STAN 13. The current government parties would not hold a majority in either case. No government would be possible without ANO, which could form a minority government or ally with SPD or some other party, most likely ODS.

The poll was conducted among about 1,000 respondents from 22 April to 10 May.

The regular general election is due in late 2025.

Czech general election model of Kantar agency (results in percent; no parties running in coalitions):

PartyApril 2024March 2024Feb 2024
ANO3234.538.5
ODS15.51614.5
Pirates1110.59.5
SPD989
STAN7.56.57
TOP 0954.55
KDU-CSL3.532
Prisaha3.52.5
SOCDEM332.5
KSCM2.5:><32.5
Greens2.52

Source: Kantar for Czech Television

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