The opposition ANO would win the general election if held in March with 32% of the vote, followed by the governing Civic Democrats (ODS) with 14%, though support for extra-parliamentary parties has been rising, according to an election model published today by the Median agency.
The Pirates would finish third with 10.5%, followed by the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) with 7% and the Mayors and Independents (STAN), with 6%. The other two members of the current coalition government, the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and TOP 09, would not cross the 5% threshold to enter the parliament, though they are thought likely to run again with ODS in the Spolu coalition.
Voter intention to participate in the elections has slightly increased from the last poll in February, to 62.5%.
“Voter fatigue with the parties in the Czech parliament is evident in the March data, and is reflected in relatively high support for the parties outside it,” said the Median report. The Communists (KSCM), PRO 2022, Prisaha, the Greens and Trikolora have all seen an increase in support, which according to Median could be connected to the start of the campaign for the June European Parliament elections.
Support for Andrej Babis’s ANO and the Pirates has changed only slightly, with ANO up 1 percentage point and the Pirates down 0.5 percentage points compared to February. STAN has not maintained its February support of 9%.
“ODS continues to strengthen at the expense of its coalition partners,” Median said.
Of the parties that formed the Spolu coalition with ODS before the previous parliamentary elections in autumn 2021, TOP 09 and the Christian Democrats are each polling at 3.5% in March. “TOP 09 would find itself out of the Chamber of Deputies for the first time since April 2023,” the authors of the report wrote.
SPD, whose support has dropped by 2.5 percentage points compared to February, is losing ground to extra-parliamentary far-right parties, in particular PRO 2022 and Trikolora, which are polling at 4% and 2% respectively, according to Median. The Communists and Social Democrats would win 4.5% each, with Prisaha on 3.5% and the Greens on 3%.
The parties of the current governing coalition (ODS, TOP 09, KDU-CSL, STAN and the Pirates) have combined support of 37.5%. Without the formation of pre-election coalitions, they would win 88 seats in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies.
ANO’s election potential, which is a hypothetical vote share if all those who are seriously considering voting for the party and who do not rule out participating in the elections vote for it, has risen again to 41.5% in March. ANO’s voter core, i.e. support from firmly decided voters of a given party who are also certain to participate in the elections, although stagnating at 24.5%, is higher than the potential of any of the other parties.
The election potential for ODS is 21%, for the Pirates 18.5%, for STAN 14.5%, and for the Social Democrats 12%. ODS has the highest voter core after ANO, with 9.5%, followed by the Pirates with 5.5%, SPD with 3.5%, and STAN and the Communists with 2.5% each.
“Willingness to participate in the elections has increased slightly compared to the previous poll,” Median said. 53% of respondents said they would definitely take part in the general election in March, while another 9.5% are considering participating, 30% will definitely not go to elections and 7.5% would rather not go.
Median surveyed 1,041 people aged over 18 between 5 March and 3 April. The statistical margin of error is 1.5 percentage points for smaller parties and up to 3 percentage points for the larger ones.
Results of last three Median election models (in percent):
| March 2024 | February 2024 | January 2024 | |
| ANO | 32 | 31 | 31.5 |
| ODS | 14 | 12.5 | 12 |
| Pirates | 10.5 | 11 | 13 |
| SPD | 7 | 9.5 | 10.5 |
| STAN | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| KSCM | 4,5 | 4 | 4.5 |
| SOCDEM (CSSD until June 2023) | 4,5 | 4.5 | 4 |
| PRO 2022 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| TOP 09 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Oath | 3.5 | 3 | 3 |
| KDU-CSL | 3.5 | 3 | 3 |
| Greens | 3 | 2 | 1.5 |
| Tricolour | 2 | – | – |
Source: Median
