Opening a new kindergarten, building a home for the elderly, and establishing a new mobile care service are not things that can be achieved within one year, as public services need to be planned in advance. Municipal authorities must therefore monitor key demographic and migration statistics, in order to forecast demographic changes. Such an exercise was carried out by the City of Brno in autumn 2023.
In the last three years, demographic statistics have fluctuated considerably due to the Covid-19 pandemic and also the situation in Ukraine. The first phenomenon had a great influence on life expectancy, the second on population migration.
The forecast of the demographic development of Brno looks forward 50 years, with the starting year being 2021 and the target year being 2071.
The forecast results can be interpreted in low, medium and high versions. The lowest forecast assumes a decrease in the population from the starting point of 385,000 to 301,000 in 2071. In this scenario, a low reproduction rate together with zero new immigrants have an impact on population ageing, which will increase by roughly 50% by 2071. This is a risky development scenario, where the population base is significantly reduced and maintaining the city’s social and economic systems is a big challenge.
The middle version envisages stability of the population, from the initial 385,000 to 386,000 in 2071. This scenario maintains the development trend from previous years, when the fluctuations in the city’s population were not dramatic. The stability is mainly due to immigration throughout the period in question, as the influx of young adults also slows the pace of population ageing.
In the final, highest version, the number of people in Brno grows from the original 385,000 to 439,000 in 2071. The scenario forecasts the population development of Brno as an attractive migration destination for younger groups of working age and foreign migrants. Total fertility and life expectancy are growing the fastest. However, even in this scenario, the high growth rate would be unable to reverse the long-term trend towards an ageing population.
You can read the forecast on the website data.brno.cz/pages/populacni-prognoza.
