ANO, led by ex-PM Andrej Babis, has risen slightly since the July poll, while both ODS and the Pirates have both seen their support drop. Credit: Andrej Babis, via Facebook.
Prague, Nov 1 (CTK) – The opposition ANO would win a general election held in the Czech Republic in September with 34% of the vote, followed by the government Civic Democrats (ODS) and Pirates, with 13% and 11.5% respectively, according to a poll conducted by the Median agency in September and released today.
ANO, led by ex-PM Andrej Babis, has risen by 1 percentage point compared to the July poll, while both PM Petr Fiala’s ODS and the Pirates have both seen their support drop.
The opposition Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), as well as the junior government Mayors and Independents (STAN) and TOP 09 would also cross the 5% of support required to enter the lower house.
The five parties of the current governing coalition (ODS, KDU-CSL, TOP 09, Pirates and STAN) together have the support of 40.5% of voters, so they would have 91 seats in the 200-seat lower house of Czech parliament.
The far-right SPD polled at 9.5%, STAN at 6.5% and TOP 09 at 5.5%.
The junior government KDU-CSL, as well as the extra-parliamentary Communists and the Social Democrats (SOCDEM) would finish just below the 5% threshold required to enter the lower house. However, the polling agency points out that, given the statistical margin of error, it is also uncertain that parties which are only slightly above 5% would enter the Chamber of Deputies.
Some previous voters of the government coalitions Spolu (ODS, KDU-CSL, TOP 09) and the so-called PirSTAN (Pirates and STAN) coalition are not currently planning to vote in elections, or they do not say whom they would vote for. “They are not considering voting for opposition parties. Hypothetically, this opens the opportunity for the formation of a new political entity,” the pollsters noted.
The poll also found that 55.5% of people would definitely participate in elections held now, while another 10.5% of respondents are considering it. On the other hand, 27% would definitely not go to vote, while 7% said they would probably not go. Since the previous poll, the willingness to participate in elections has dropped by 5 percentage points, which helps the parties with a stable electorate core, according to Median.
Turnout in the October 2021 general election was 65.43%.
ANO has the strongest core of voters, with 26.5% of people determined to vote for it, more than the potential of any of the other parties. The election potential is the support a party would get if all those considering voting for it really did so. In the case of ANO, it is 39%, for ODS 22% and for the Pirates 20.5%.
ANO has the highest support among people aged over 55, and the majority of its voters are women. ODS, on the other hand, finds more support among men, and is the most preferred by university graduates. The largest share of Pirate voters are young people aged 18 to 24, followed by the 25-34 age category.
The Median poll was conducted on a sample of 1,017 people from 5 September to 2 October.
Median election models this year (results in percent):
| September 2023 | July 2023 | June 2023 | May 2023 | April 2023 | March 2023 | |
| ANO | 34 | 33 | 35.5 | 34.5 | 31 | 34.5 |
| ODS | 13 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15.5 |
| Pirates | 11.5 | 12 | 11 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 |
| SPD | 9.5 | 8 | 10 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 10 |
| STAN | 6.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 6 | 7.5 | 8 |
| TOP 09 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| KSCM | 4.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 3 |
| SOCDEM (CSSD until June 2023) | 4.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| KDU-CSL | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5.5 | 4 |
