Kantar Agency: ANO Lead Over ODS Narrows Sharply In New Poll

ANO voters do not usually switch to other parties. Photo credit: Freepik.

Prague, Nov 13 (CTK) – If a general election were held in early November in the Czech Republic, the opposition ANO would remain the largest party with 26.5% of the vote, followed by the senior government Civic Democrats (ODS) with 21.5%, according to an election model from Kantar CZ, released by Czech Television (CT). 

However, ANO’s lead over ODS has more than halved from the previous poll in September; ANO has dropped by 3 percentage points (p.p), while support for ODS has risen by 3.5 p.p.

Apart from ANO and ODS, a further four parties would enter the Chamber of Deputies.

Kantar CZ analyst Nikola Kopacova said ODS has gained new supporters mainly from former voters of the other current government parties. “This means that the government parties mainly attract each other’s voters,” Kopacova told CT.

On the contrary, ANO voters do not usually switch to other parties. “Many voters of ANO do not consider supporting any other party. They see no alternative, and if they lose the motivation to support ANO, they usually do not take part in elections at all,” Kopacova said.

The Pirates, a junior partner in the five-party coalition government, finished third in the poll, with 11.5%, ahead of the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) with 11%.

The other two parties that would re-enter parliament on current polling are the junior government parties, Mayors and Independents (STAN) and TOP 09, with 6% and 5.5% of the vote, respectively.

The last of the five government parties, the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), would fail to cross the 5% threshold, as would the Social Democrats (CSSD), the formerly powerful centre-left party which has formed several governments, but was ousted from the lower house in the 2021 elections. Both are polling at 3.5%.

The extra-parliamentary Communist Party, Prisaha, and Trikolora are all below 3% in support, according to the Kantar CZ model, which was based on a public opinion poll conducted on 1,000 respondents from 17 October to 4 November.

If parties did not run separately but in coalitions, as in last autumn’s general election, the governing SPOLU alliance (ODS, TOP 09, KDU- CSL) would win, with 31.5% of the vote, up 3% from September. 

ANO would finish second, with 28%, down 3.5% from September, followed by PirSTAN (Pirates + STAN) (14%, +2) and SPD (11.5%, -0.5)

Besides voter preferences, the pollsters also surveyed satisfaction with the political situation in the Czech Republic. 27% of respondents assessed this as good or very good, 5% more than in September.

Kantar CZ election models (results in percent)

November 2022September 2022August 2022

Source: Kantar CZ, CT

October 2022    September 2022    August 2022

YES    26.5    29.5    30.5

ODS    21.5    18.0    19.5

Pirates    11.5    9.0    8.5

SPD    11.0    11.5    11.0

TENT    6.0    7.5    6.5

TOP 09    5.5    4.0    4.5

KDU-CSL    3.5    6.0    4.0

CSSD    3.5    2.5    3.0

The Oath    2.5    4.0    3.0

KSCM    2.5    2.0    3.5

Tricolor    2.0    –    –

Source: Kantar CZ, CT

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