Prague, Jan 7 (CTK) – The incumbent President Milos Zeman or former Science Academy chairman Jiri Drahos will become the new Czech president, according to voter preferences as showed by public opinion polls ahead of the January 12-13 first round of the direct presidential election involving nine candidates.

The third most preferred candidate is Michal Horacek, a lyricist and entrepreneur, it ensues from the polls various agencies have released since October.

The polls’ results can be published until Monday. As of Tuesday, a moratorium on their release starts to last until after the election.

All December public opinion polls indicated Zeman’s victory in the first round with the election gain of one third to two fifths of the vote, while Drahos, the probable runner-up, is expected to gain one fifth to one third of the vote.

Out of the other candidates, only Horacek might reach a two-digit result, the polls showed.

According to a poll conducted by the STEM agency and released by TV Nova today, Zeman would gain 45.5 percent of the vote in the first round now, followed by Drahos with 27.2 percent and Horacek with 10.3 percent.

Out of the other candidates, only former ambassador Pavel Fischer’s and former PM Mirek Topolanek’s gains would cross 5 percent, according to STEM.

A model encompassing not only public opinion polls but also betting odds as set by betting agencies shows Zeman as a slight favourite in the possible runoff battle two weeks later.

The runoff vote would decide between the first round’s two most successful candidates, if none of them crossed 50 percent and were elected directly in the first round.

According to this model, the probability of Zeman’s re-election oscillates around 46 percent, compared with a 45-percent probability of Drahos’s victory in the runoff.

Apart from Zeman, Drahos, Horacek, Fischer and Topolanek, the remaining four candidates are doctor and activist Marek Hilser, musician and businessman Petr Hannig, Defence and Security Industry Association head Jiri Hynek and former Skoda Auto head Vratislav Kulhanek.

CVVM and Sanep polls (in percent):

CVVM September 2017 CVVM October 2017 Sanep November 2017 CVVM December 2017
Milos Zeman 31 34 30.2 32
Jiri Drahos 18 22 23.6 21.5
Michal Horacek 14 13 9.7 10.5
Marek Hilser 1 1 3.9 4
Pavel Fischer 6.3 3
Mirek Topolanek 16.8 2.5
Vratislav Kulhanek 1 2 1.9 1.5
Petr Hannig 3.1 1
Jiri Hynek 4.5 1
Undecided voters 28 22 23

STEM/MARK polls (in percent)

November – “definitely yes” and “probably yes” answers November – “probably no” and definitely no” answers December – “definitely yes” and “probably yes” answers December – “probably no” and “definitely no” answers
Jiri Drahos 40 21 60 41
Milos Zeman 45 53 47 54
Pavel Fischer 16 26 40 60
Michal Horacek 32 52 38 61
Marek Hilser 12 14 38 62
Jiri Hynek 3 9 20 79
Vratislav Kulhanek 12 22 20 80
Petr Hannig 13 87
Mirek Topolanek 12 79 10 90

Polls Kantar TNS and Median agencies released to Czech Television (in percent):

November model November potential December model December potential
Milos Zeman 41.5 45 43.5 48.0
Jiri Drahos 30.5 40.5 28.5 41.5
Michal Horacek 16.5 28.5 11.5 28.5
Mirek Topolanek 4 9.5 7.0 14.5
Pavel Fischer 2.5 11.5 5.0 21.5
Marek Hilser 2.5 6.5 2.0 9.5
Vratislav Kulhanek 1 5 1.5 8.0
Jiri Hynek 0.5 2.5 1.0 5.5
Petr Hannig 1 3 0.5 4.5

rtj/dr

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